Loading
A regional thesis on Milanese residential and hospitality demand once the games have come and gone.
A regional thesis on Milanese residential and hospitality demand once the games have come and gone.
The literature on post-Games demand is, with rare exceptions, written by people who left the host city before the medals tarnished. The reliable finding — the one that survives across a half-century of host cities — is that the demand which sticks is local, and the demand which leaves is the demand the headlines tracked.
Milan is not a single market. The post-2026 question is which of the inner-ring neighbourhoods absorb the returning office demand, which of the second-ring neighbourhoods retain the upgrades to public realm and transport, and which of the host-side projects revert to mixed-use absorption at terms the local user can pay. Our base case is that the answer is more granular than the institutional commentary suggests.
We are spending time in three neighbourhoods we will not name in a public note, on the basis that the work of underwriting them is more useful than the work of marketing them. The shorthand: dense, well-served, under-restored, and priced as though the cycle that ended in 2022 had never ended.
Hospitality is the use most exposed to the post-Games air pocket. We do not expect to be buying Milanese hotels and aparthotels over the next eighteen months. We do expect the gap between the strong houses and the weak ones to widen, and we expect to look again at the buildings on the weaker side of that gap when it does.